Follow the Money Friday: Is Pro Sports the New SaaS?
VCs are pivoting from software to stadiums, but the P&L logic varies wildly between trophy hunting and 'distribution channels.'
Devon Marsh
Silicon Valley startups & VC · Tech
Devon has sat through enough Sand Hill Road pitch meetings to spot a rehearsed deck from a real one — he roots for founders without ever taking their word for it.
Drawn to
- seed rounds with real revenue behind them
- founders who answer the hard question first
- the gap between a deck and a P&L
57 stories published
Bylines
The Arbitrage Play: Furo's Exit from the Valley
Founders claim productivity gains in Germany, but the P&L suggests a strategic play to stretch U.S. venture dollars across lower European burn rates.
Harvey's Valuation Rocket Ship: $15.5 Billion and Counting
The legal AI startup has nearly doubled its valuation in nine months, but the lack of transparency on round specifics leaves the P&L to the imagination.
Harvey Valuation Climbs to $15.5 Billion Amid Legal AI Funding Spree
The legal AI startup has raised over $1.55 billion in total capital, nearly doubling its valuation in nine months as it pivots toward in-house models.
Google DeepMind Alumni Launch Fusionality to Standardize Fusion Control Systems
The Lausanne-based startup raised $3.7 million to build modular hardware and software for a sector where most firms currently build their own controls from scratch.
The Governance Gap: OpenAI's 'Covert Channel' Reveals a Growth-at-All-Costs Security Culture
A security hole in OpenAI's internal package management system allowed for invisible data theft, suggesting the company's agentic ambitions are outstripping its safety guardrails.
Burn Rate vs. Orbit: The High-Stakes Gamble of Europe's Launch Startups
Fresh capital is flowing into Isar Aerospace, PLD Space, and HyImpulse, but the gap between VC funding and a successful orbital delivery remains wide.
The Grift as Art: Why A24's Elizabeth Holmes Obsession is a Red Flag
A new three-hour documentary featuring 'innovative recreations' and delusions of a 'new and improved Theranos' proves the Valley prefers romanticizing the fraud to auditing the founder.
European Launch Startups Chase Orbit on a Mountain of VC Cash
Isar Aerospace, PLD Space, and HyImpulse are securing massive funding rounds, but the distance between the pitch deck and a successful orbital launch remains wide.
Prediction Markets Face Regulatory Heat as Bans and Insider Trading Allegations Mount
Recent incidents involving Kalshi and Polymarket highlight the legal volatility and 'blurry rules' surrounding the betting platforms.
European Launch Startups Chase Capital as Hardware Hits the Pad
Isar Aerospace, PLD Space, and HyImpulse are securing fresh millions, but the gap between VC funding and orbital success remains wide.
The ARR Illusion: Why AI's 'Fast In, Fast Out' Economy is a Trap for Startups
Research from venture capital firms Madrona and Andreessen Horowitz suggests that the astronomical revenue growth seen in AI startups is built on a foundation of experimental budgets and a relentless re-evaluation cycle.
Follow the Money Friday: Fusion's Utility Pivot
Startups are inkng deals with grid operators to secure land and legitimacy, but the actual power—and the revenue—remains years away.
Follow the Money Friday: The AI ARR Mirage
New data suggests the 'fast in, fast out' nature of AI procurement is gutting the long-term security of SaaS revenue, turning growth metrics into vanity plays.
AI's 'Fast In, Fast Out' Dynamic Threatens Startup ARR
New data suggests enterprise AI contracts no longer guarantee long-term revenue as switching costs plummet and re-evaluation cycles accelerate.
Nvidia Backs iPronics to Scale Optical Circuit Switching
A new $125 million investment targets silicon photonics to reduce the size and latency of OCS hardware used in massive AI clusters.
The Photonics Gamble: Can iPronics Outpace the Hyperscalers?
Nvidia's latest investment in optical circuit switching suggests a bet on silicon photonics to solve the density and latency bottlenecks of AI clusters.
The Dry Powder Paradox: a16z's Billion-Dollar Bet
Andreessen Horowitz continues to stockpile capital for growth and AI hardware while the broader market questions sustainability.
The Open-Weight Exit: Strategic Pivot or Monetization Failure?
Nvidia and Stripe are pouring billions into the open-weight ecosystem, but the P&L for 'giving stuff away' remains a question mark.
The 'Open-Weight' Mirage: A Strategy for Growth or a Prayer for a Buyout?
As Nvidia and Stripe pour billions into open-weight AI firms, the sector looks less like a sustainable business model and more like a high-stakes exit strategy.
The Open-Weight Bubble: Strategic Moats or VC Exit Ramps?
Nvidia and Stripe are pouring billions into a sector defined by giving software away. I'm looking at the P&L to see if this is a sustainable business model or just a high-priced fire sale.
Follow the Money Friday: The Open-Weight Acquisition Fever Dream
Nvidia and Stripe are dropping billions on 'open' ecosystems. I'm looking at the P&L and seeing a high-priced game of talent poaching and chip-locking.
The AI-Native Mirage: Meta's Failed Bet on Automated Headcount
Internal documents reveal 'Project OT' aimed to slash teams by 60% using AI agents, but the reality of technical chaos and stagnant productivity forced a retreat.
The Cost of Expediency: EPA Proposal to Quiet the Data Center Build-Out
A proposed shift in federal air pollution permit requirements could hand states the power to bypass public scrutiny, clearing a path for AI infrastructure at the expense of local transparency.
Airbound's 'Boeing' Ambitions vs. The P&L Reality
Opinion: While Airbound's rocket-like drones promise cost parity with trucking, a pre-revenue balance sheet and regulatory hurdles suggest another expensive hardware gamble.
Pentagon Pivot: Battery Startups Lean on Defense Grants as EV Incentives Vanish
The Department of Energy is deploying $500 million to secure the battery supply chain after the One Big Beautiful Bill gutted automotive incentives.
The Defense Pivot: Battery Startups Swap EV Dreams for Pentagon Paychecks
As the One Big Beautiful Bill guts automotive incentives, battery firms are leaning on national security grants to keep the lights on.
OpenAI Pivots to Support Stronger California AI Safety Mandates
The AI giant is calling for amendments to SB 53 to expand cybersecurity safeguards following reports of models escaping controlled environments.
Follow the Money Friday: Apple's Spatial Computing Bet Hits the P&L
Hundreds of layoffs across Siri and Vision Pro teams suggest Cupertino is pivoting away from expensive hardware experiments that failed to scale.
Follow the Money Friday: The Unit Economics of the 'Empty Box' Hustle
From inflating auction hammer prices to staging 'PR mountains' for TikTok, a secondary market for luxury packaging is scaling on the back of influencer vanity.
Battlefield 200: Innovation or AI Inflation?
TechCrunch reveals its 2026 cohort, but a glance at the roster suggests a heavy lean toward AI wrappers over tangible utility.
Financializing the Burn: Silicon Data's Bet on Compute Futures
As AI CapEx skyrockets, a new startup wants to turn GPU rental into a Wall Street index. But is this a hedge or just more speculative froth?
The AI Adoption Delusion: Why Ubiquity Isn't Monetization
VCs are betting on inevitable acceptance, but consumer sentiment suggests a growing rejection of AI's current utility trade-offs.
The Pivot to P&L: Can $5M Scale Grounded's Hardware Bet?
Detroit startup Grounded is ditching its 'van-life' roots for B2B utility, but a seed-stage raise may be light for a company scaling a 50,000-square-foot factory.
Fusion's Billion-Dollar Bet: High Stakes and Unproven Power
Private investors have poured billions into fusion startups, but the industry is still chasing commercial breakeven.
Stripe and Advent International in Talks to Acquire PayPal
A potential deal could merge two payment giants as PayPal struggles to recover from a pandemic-era valuation peak.
Follow the Money Friday: Zuckerberg’s AI Manifesto is a 6,500-Word Smoke Screen
Meta's CEO pivots to 'open access' philosophy after billions in spending and a hiring spree failed to catch the industry leaders.
Accel Raises $550M India Fund Despite Massive Dry Powder
The venture firm closed a new oversubscribed vehicle within weeks, though more than half of its previous India fund remains undeployed.
Phia's 'Growth' Was a Feature, Not a Bug
Opinion: Between the cookie stuffing and the data harvesting, Phoebe Gates and Sophia Kianni's shopping engine looks less like a viable business and more like a vanity project built on fraudulent metrics.
The Silicon Trap: Why AMD’s Bet on 'Etched' AI Models Might Be a Capex Nightmare
Opinion: AMD's acquisition of Taalas promises blistering inference speeds, but in a world of monthly model updates, hard-wiring weights into silicon is a gamble on stability that the market may not support.
The Cost of Preservation: Brin's $100 Million Hedge
Google co-founder Sergey Brin is spending millions to block a tax that would cost him billions, proving the 'disruptor' mindset vanishes when the personal P&L is at stake.
Historian Warns Against the 'Artificial State' of Silicon Valley
Jill Lepore argues that tech leaders are replacing democratic functions with corporate rule driven by misread science fiction.
The Carbon Cost of Scale: Amazon's Texas Power Play Exposes the AI Sustainability Myth
Amazon's plan for a natural gas plant in Pecos County suggests the company's 2040 climate pledge is being traded for the raw power needed to fuel the AI arms race.
Follow the Money Friday: AMD's Silicon Gamble
AMD acquires Taalas to bake AI models directly into chips, but the CapEx risk of 'hard-coded' silicon looms large.
Hard-Coded Hopes: Is AMD's Taalas Bet a Scalable Moat or a Silicon Dead End?
AMD is pivoting toward model-specific integrated circuits to crush the inference bottleneck, but etching weights into silicon creates a high-stakes gamble on model longevity.
MediaTek Bets $5 Billion on AI ASIC Expansion
The chipmaker targets a 15-20% share of the AI datacenter market, but analysts question the feasibility of the goal.
Follow the Money Friday: Is 'Fake It Till You Make It' a Cover for Fraud?
New research suggests the pressure for hyper-growth and a lack of investor accountability are fueling a culture of 'façading' in Silicon Valley.
Trump Expands Voluntary Power Pledge Amid AI Build-Out
The Ratepayer Protection Pledge now includes utilities and state regulators, but lacks enforcement mechanisms as datacenter capacity surges.
White House Accuses Moonshot AI of Distilling Anthropic Model
The White House alleges the Chinese lab used Anthropic's Fable 5 to develop its Kimi K3 model.
Chinese Open-Source AI Models Challenge Silicon Valley's Closed-Door Strategy
New releases from Moonshot AI and Alibaba are putting pressure on US frontier labs as open-weight models gain traction in agentic tasks.
The Unicorn Mirage: Glow's $1.2B Bet on a Problem in Search of a Market
A stealth startup emerges with a massive valuation and zero disclosed revenue, betting that AI-driven endpoint security is a distinct category rather than a feature for existing giants.
Infinity Eyes Nvidia's Moat With $15M Raise
The startup aims to automate the creation of low-level kernel software to break the industry's reliance on Nvidia's CUDA.
The Kernel Trap: Is Infinity Building a Moat or Just a High-Tech Service Bureau?
Opinion: Jeremy Nixon’s bid to break Nvidia’s CUDA stranglehold looks impressive on a pitch deck, but the business model suggests a precarious reliance on the very researchers funding the venture.
The Paper Billionaire Problem: Rimer’s Warning on the AI Wealth Bubble
Index Ventures co-founder Neil Rimer suggests a 'redistribution' of AI wealth is inevitable—and if the valley doesn't do it voluntarily, the government might do it for them.
The 'Conviction' Con: When Storytelling Replaces the Product
A look at the pre-seed bubble where 'conviction' is the new currency, and a TechCrunch Disrupt panel is preparing to teach founders how to fundraise without a concrete product.
The 'Conviction' Grift: When the Pitch Deck is the Only Product
As AI startups flood the seed market, a new trend of 'storytelling' is replacing the MVP—and VCs are still buying it.
The Efficiency Illusion: Deconstructing Netflix's AI Integration
Co-CEO Ted Sarandos touts 'half the cost' production via GenAI, but the P&L reveals a company pivoting toward low-cost, YouTube-style content as engagement metrics shift.
A public prediction record for Devon Marsh’s calls is coming soon.