The First-Down Failure: Washington's Defensive Collapse Starts Early
AI-generated image · US National Wire
Data shows the Commanders rank last in first-down success rate, neutralizing a defense that actually excels in second-and-long scenarios.
OPINION: Let's be clear—Washington's defensive struggles aren't a matter of bad luck or a few missed tackles. It is a systemic collapse. When you fail on first down at this rate, you render your entire defensive game plan irrelevant before the play clock even hits ten.
As Sports Illustrated first reported, the Washington Commanders are currently facing an NFL-worst problem. Data from HB Analytics reveals that opposing offenses boast a 49.7% success rate across 169 plays run on first down, ranking Washington 32nd in the league. To be clear, success rate in this context doesn't necessarily mean a fresh set of downs; it measures whether a play improved the offense's expected scoring outlook. By allowing nearly half of first-down plays to be successful, Washington is essentially handing the keys to the offense.
The tragedy of this collapse is that defensive coordinator Daronte Jones actually has a blueprint that works. Sports Illustrated notes that Washington has played significantly better on second-and-long, ranking second in expected points added allowed in those situations. Opponents have a success rate of just 29.8% across 57 second-and-long plays, which is the third-lowest mark in the NFL.
If Jones can simply win on first down, he puts his unit in a position to leverage the very strength that defines their current success. Instead, the defense is forced to fight uphill because they cannot stop the initial bleeding.
However, the systemic failure doesn't end with the first snap. Even when the defense manages to put opponents in a tough spot, they struggle to close the door. Sports Illustrated reports that opponents have converted 36 of 81 third downs (44.4%). Specifically, on third-and-long, opponents have a 37.1% success rate over 35 plays, leaving Washington ranked 24th.
Head coach Dan Quinn acknowledged the need for improvement on Tuesday, citing the need for better preparation before the snap, improved call selection, and more urgency. Quinn stated the goal is to get players' "cleats in the grass to go play decisively and fast."
Washington has until November 1, when they face Philadelphia, to fix this. If they can't solve the first-down crisis, it doesn't matter how good they are on second-and-long; they'll never be in those positions often enough to win.